Josh Shapiro Democrat · Governor
Stacy Garrity Republican · Governor
| District | Incumbent | Crosstab rating | Dem. chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Likely Democratic | 91% |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-03 | Dwight Evans (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-07 | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | Likely Democratic | 82% |
| PA-08 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | Toss-up | 52% |
| PA-09 | Dan Meuser (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry (R) | Leans Democratic | 74% |
| PA-11 | Lloyd Smucker (R) | Safe Republican | 5% |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| PA-13 | John Joyce (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| PA-14 | Guy Reschenthaler (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| PA-15 | Glenn Thompson (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| PA-16 | Mike Kelly (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio (D) | Safe Democratic | 99% |
| The New York Times/Siena College | A+ | 39 polls | leans even |
| ActiVote | New | 21 polls | leans even |
| Quinnipiac University | B+ | 13 polls | leans D+1.2 |
| Global Strategy Group | F | 11 polls | leans even |
| Research Co. | New | 10 polls | leans even |
| National Public Affairs | New | 7 polls | leans R+2.1 |
| PennLive | New | 5 polls | leans D+3.1 |
| Z to A Research | New | 4 polls | leans R+0.7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | B+ | 4 polls | leans D+0.9 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | C+ | 4 polls | leans D+0.7 |
| Bravo Group | New | 2 polls |
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index.
Shapiro leads by 23.9 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls (Shapiro vs. Garrity, updated Nov 11, 2026).
Updated Nov 11, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds