The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
PA-01 (Likely Democratic) · PA-02 (Safe Democratic) · PA-03 (Safe Democratic) · PA-04 (Safe Democratic) · PA-06 (Safe Democratic) · PA-07 (Likely Democratic) · PA-08 (Toss-up) · PA-09 (Safe Republican) · PA-10 (Leans Democratic) · PA-11 (Likely Republican) · PA-12 (Safe Democratic) · PA-13 (Safe Republican) · PA-14 (Safe Republican) · PA-15 (Safe Republican) · PA-16 (Safe Republican) · PA-17 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Pennsylvania's 5th District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 100% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 39.2 points.
Mary Gay Scanlon (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.