NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | SSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 24/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 5.4 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 1.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts | ±3.7 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | D+4.4 |
| Winners called | 69% ★ | 63% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 30 polls |
| 2026 polls | 39 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | Even ★ | D+0.7 |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | SSRS (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 53, Rogers 42 (D+5.1 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 42 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 51, Collins 45 (D+1.1 vs. avg) | Jackson 49, Collins 45 (D+1.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 50, Paxton 43 (D+4 vs. avg) | Talarico 49, Paxton 43 (D+3.3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 48, Hinson 47 (D+1 vs. avg) | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 44 (D+2.5 vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 43 (D+2.5 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Senate | Hamilton 49, Marshall 44 (D+0.8 vs. avg) | Hamilton 49, Marshall 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 48, Abbott 47 (D+4.3 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 48 (D+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 52, James 39 (D+4.9 vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 51, Lahn 43 (D+1.7 vs. avg) | Sand 51, Lahn 42 (R+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Governor | Holscher 48, Masterson 47 (D+0.9 vs. avg) | Holscher 45, Masterson 50 (R+5.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 43 (D+1.4 vs. avg) | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 42 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
| Maine Governor | Pingree 49, Charles 37 (D+1.9 vs. avg) | Pingree 53, Charles 39 (D+5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · SSRS vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. SSRS · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · SSRS vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 5.4 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24).
Yes: 12 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Maine Senate, Texas Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.