Emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | SSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 24/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts ★ | 5.4 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better ★ | 1.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts | ±3.7 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | D+4.4 |
| Winners called | 76% ★ | 63% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 30 polls |
| 2026 polls | 48 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.6 | D+0.7 ★ |
| Race | Emerson (latest) | SSRS (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 45 (R+0.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 42 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 49, Collins 51 (R+7.9 vs. avg) | Jackson 49, Collins 45 (D+1.3 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 48, Husted 46 (R+0.7 vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 43 (D+2.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 50, James 46 (R+5.6 vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 48 (R+5.3 vs. avg) | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 42 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Senate | Hamilton 49.5, Marshall 47.1 (R+1.6 vs. avg) | Hamilton 49, Marshall 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Governor | Holscher 46, Masterson 50 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | Holscher 45, Masterson 50 (R+5.1 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 48, Paxton 46 (R+0.6 vs. avg) | Talarico 49, Paxton 43 (D+3.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 45, Abbott 49 (R+1 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 48 (D+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 47 (R+3.3 vs. avg) | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 49, Lahn 45 (R+5.9 vs. avg) | Sand 51, Lahn 42 (R+0.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · SSRS vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Marist College
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 5.4 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24).
Emerson (R+1.6 versus other polls of the same races) compared with SSRS (D+0.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 11 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Maine Senate, Ohio Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.