Trafalgar comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | SSRS | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 24/100 | 48/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.4 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.3 worse | 0.1 worse ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.7 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+4.4 | R+3 ★ |
| Winners called | 63% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 30 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 19 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.7 ★ | R+1.3 |
| Race | SSRS (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 42 (D+2.1 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+1.2 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 49, Paxton 43 (D+3.3 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 44 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 49, Collins 45 (D+1.3 vs. avg) | Jackson 47, Collins 47 (R+3 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Senate | Hamilton 49, Marshall 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) | Hamilton 44, Marshall 44 (R+0.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 46 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 43 (D+2.5 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 45 (R+0.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · SSRS vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Emerson College vs. SSRS · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · SSRS vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · New York Times/Siena College vs. SSRS
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 5.4 pts). Overall, trafalgar comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with SSRS (D+0.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 6 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Texas Senate, Maine Senate, Kansas Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.