NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | Suffolk |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 68/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts | 4.1 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 0.7 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts ★ | ±4 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | D+1.5 |
| Winners called | 69% | 81% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 60 polls |
| 2026 polls | 39 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | Even ★ | D+1.3 |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | Suffolk (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 53, Rogers 42 (D+5.1 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40 (D+4.5 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 51, Collins 45 (D+1.1 vs. avg) | Jackson 49, Collins 47 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 48, Hinson 47 (D+1 vs. avg) | Turek 48, Hinson 44 (D+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 44 (D+2.5 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 44 (R+0.4 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 52, James 39 (D+4.9 vs. avg) | Benson 51, James 34 (D+10.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 51, Lahn 43 (D+1.7 vs. avg) | Sand 55, Lahn 43 (D+3.7 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 43 (D+1.4 vs. avg) | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 44 (even vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Suffolk University vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Suffolk University · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Suffolk University vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
They have similar average errors. Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; Suffolk: A-, Trust Score 68).
NYT/Siena (Even versus other polls of the same races) compared with Suffolk (D+1.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 7 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Maine Senate, Iowa Senate, Ohio Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.