Cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | SSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 24/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 5.4 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 1.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±3.7 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 ★ | D+4.4 |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 63% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 30 polls |
| 2026 polls | 12 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.4 ★ | D+0.7 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | SSRS (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 42 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 45, James 38 (even vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 44 (R+2.1 vs. avg) | Sand 51, Lahn 42 (R+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (D+1.1 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 48 (D+0.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: SSRS vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. SSRS · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · SSRS vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. SSRS · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 5.4 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24).
Cygnal (R+0.4 versus other polls of the same races) compared with SSRS (D+0.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 5 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor, Iowa Senate, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.