Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Siena | SSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 67/100 ★ | 24/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.7 pts | 5.4 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.2 better ★ | 1.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±5.1 pts | ±3.7 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3.2 ★ | D+4.4 |
| Winners called | 89% ★ | 63% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 57 polls | 30 polls |
| 2026 polls | 17 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+2.6 | D+0.7 ★ |
| Race | Siena (latest) | SSRS (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 48, Paxton 44 (D+0.9 vs. avg) | Talarico 49, Paxton 43 (D+3.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 48 (R+0.6 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 48 (D+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+3 vs. avg) | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 46 (even vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 43 (D+2.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: SSRS vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. SSRS · Emerson College vs. Siena College · SSRS vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. SSRS · New York Times/Siena College vs. Siena College
SSRS has the smaller average error (5.4 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Siena: A-, Trust Score 67; SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24).
SSRS (D+0.7 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.6). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Senate, Ohio Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.