Suffolk comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Suffolk | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 68/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 4.2 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 81% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 60 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 14 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+1.3 | R+1.3 |
| Race | Suffolk (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 47, Husted 44 (R+0.4 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 45 (R+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 49, Collins 47 (D+0.3 vs. avg) | Jackson 47, Collins 47 (R+3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 48, Hinson 44 (D+2.4 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 46 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40 (D+4.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+1.2 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Suffolk University vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Emerson College vs. Suffolk University · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Suffolk University vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · New York Times/Siena College vs. Suffolk University
Suffolk has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, suffolk comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Suffolk: A-, Trust Score 68; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Suffolk (D+1.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Maine Senate, Iowa Senate, Michigan Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.