Cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | Suffolk |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 68/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 4.1 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.7 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±4 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | D+1.5 ★ |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 81% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 60 polls |
| 2026 polls | 12 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | Suffolk (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40 (D+4.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 45, James 38 (even vs. avg) | Benson 51, James 34 (D+10.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Turek 48, Hinson 44 (D+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 44 (R+2.1 vs. avg) | Sand 55, Lahn 43 (D+3.7 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Suffolk University vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Suffolk University · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Suffolk University vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Suffolk University · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.1 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; Suffolk: A-, Trust Score 68).
Cygnal (R+0.4 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Suffolk (D+1.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor, Iowa Senate, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.