Trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Siena | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 67/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.7 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.2 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±5.1 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3.2 | R+3 ★ |
| Winners called | 89% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 57 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+2.7 | R+1.3 ★ |
| Race | Siena (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (D+4.6 vs. avg) | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (R+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+2.6 vs. avg) | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) | Brown 45, Husted 42 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Siena College vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Siena College · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Siena: A-, Trust Score 67; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 3 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Ohio Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.