Trafalgar comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 48/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 0.1 worse ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | R+3 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1.3 |
| Race | Change (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (R+2.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Change Research vs. Emerson College · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · Change Research vs. New York Times/Siena College
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, trafalgar comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Change (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including North Carolina Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.