Change comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | SSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 ★ | 24/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 5.4 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse ★ | 1.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±3.7 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 ★ | D+4.4 |
| Winners called | 71% ★ | 63% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 30 polls |
| 2026 polls | 15 | 19 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+1 | D+0.7 ★ |
| Race | Change (latest) | SSRS (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 43, Hinson 45 (R+4.2 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: SSRS vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. SSRS · Change Research vs. Emerson College · SSRS vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. SSRS · Change Research vs. New York Times/Siena College
SSRS has the smaller average error (5.4 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, change comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; SSRS: C-, Trust Score 24).
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.