Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Muhlenberg | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 77/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.3 pts ★ | 4.2 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.2 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±3.4 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+0.4 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 82% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 33 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | — | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+1.3 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. New York Times/Siena College
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.