Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Muhlenberg | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 77/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.3 pts ★ | 5 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.2 better ★ | 0.1 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±4.8 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 82% | 87% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 33 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | — | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | D+1.4 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 5 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.