Trust Score 77/100, rank #7 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 86% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #2–30). Gold standard · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 90th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 86th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.3 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 8.5/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2 | 5.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2006 | 3 | 6.4 | R+3.6 |
| 2008 | 4 | 2.1 | even |
| 2010 | 8 | 3 | R+0.8 |
| 2012 | 4 | 1.7 | R+1.7 |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.1 | D+2.1 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3.3 | D+3.3 |
| 2018 | 3 | 2.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | 4.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.8 | R+2.8 |
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion is rated A in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 77 of 100, rank 7 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 3.3 points on average, against 4.5 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 82% of races.
Historically, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion's misses leaned R+0.4 on average. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.