Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | Muhlenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 77/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts | 3.3 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better | 1.2 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 | R+0.4 |
| Winners called | 76% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 33 polls |
| 2026 polls | 31 | — |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.5 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 4.3 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.