Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Muhlenberg | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 77/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.3 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.2 better ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+0.4 ★ | D+2.5 |
| Winners called | 82% | 82% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 33 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | — | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | D+0.5 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.