Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Muhlenberg | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 77/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.3 pts ★ | 4.1 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.2 better ★ | 0.8 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±3.9 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 82% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 33 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | — | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+1 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 4.1 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.