Cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 4.2 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±3.4 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 ★ | R+1.3 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 46, Collins 43 (R+2 vs. avg) | Ossoff 49, Collins 43 (R+1.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Cygnal (R+0.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 3 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Iowa Senate, Georgia Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.