Suffolk comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | Suffolk |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 68/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 0.7 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | D+1.5 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% | 81% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 60 polls |
| 2026 polls | 15 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+1 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Race | Change (latest) | Suffolk (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 48, Hinson 44 (D+2.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Change Research vs. YouGov · Suffolk University vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Suffolk University · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Suffolk University vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Suffolk University
Suffolk has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, suffolk comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; Suffolk: A-, Trust Score 68).
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-11-11 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.