Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | Muhlenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 77/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 3.3 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 1.2 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | R+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 33 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | — |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Change Research vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. New York Times/Siena College
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.