UMass Lowell comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | UMass Lowell |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 80/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts | 3.4 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better | 1.5 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | D+1.6 |
| Winners called | 69% | 85% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 21 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 1 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 | — |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | UMass Lowell (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine Governor | Pingree 47, Charles 34 (D+2.3 vs. avg) | Pingree 49, Charles 38 (R+0.8 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
UMass Lowell has the smaller average error (3.4 pts vs. 4.1 pts). Overall, uMass Lowell comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; UMass Lowell: A, Trust Score 80).
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Maine Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.