Muhlenberg comes out ahead on 3 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | Muhlenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 | 77/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts | 3.3 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 1.2 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts | ±3.3 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | R+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 82% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 33 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | — |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Cygnal vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. New York Times/Siena College
Muhlenberg has the smaller average error (3.3 pts vs. 3.8 pts). Overall, muhlenberg comes out ahead on 3 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.