Cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | Cygnal |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 76/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 3.8 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 1.5 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | D+2.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% | 92% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 39 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 | R+0.3 ★ |
| Race | Change (latest) | Cygnal (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Change Research vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. Emerson College · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 7 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76).
Cygnal (R+0.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Change (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.