Even: ABC/Washington Post and NYT/Siena split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | ABC/Washington Post | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 80/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.1 pts ★ | 4.1 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.1 better ★ | 0.8 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3 pts ★ | ±3.9 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 69% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 69 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 2 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+1 |
| Race | ABC/Washington Post (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) | Benson 48, James 43 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
ABC/Washington Post has the smaller average error (3.1 pts vs. 4.1 pts). Overall, even: ABC/Washington Post and NYT/Siena split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (ABC/Washington Post: A, Trust Score 80; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.