UMass Lowell comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Trafalgar | UMass Lowell |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 48/100 | 80/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.2 pts | 3.4 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 1.5 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.4 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3 | D+1.6 ★ |
| Winners called | 59% | 85% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 98 polls | 21 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 1 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.3 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Emerson College vs. University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
UMass Lowell has the smaller average error (3.4 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, uMass Lowell comes out ahead on 6 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48; UMass Lowell: A, Trust Score 80).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.