Even: ABC/Washington Post and Muhlenberg split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | ABC/Washington Post | Muhlenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 80/100 ★ | 77/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.1 pts ★ | 3.3 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.1 better | 1.2 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3 pts ★ | ±3.3 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 | R+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 69 polls | 33 polls |
| 2026 polls | 2 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: ABC News/The Washington Post vs. YouGov · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. YouGov · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. New York Times/Siena College · Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion vs. New York Times/Siena College
ABC/Washington Post has the smaller average error (3.1 pts vs. 3.3 pts). Overall, even: ABC/Washington Post and Muhlenberg split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (ABC/Washington Post: A, Trust Score 80; Muhlenberg: A, Trust Score 77).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.