ABC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | ABC/Washington Post | Marist |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 80/100 ★ | 61/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.1 pts ★ | 4.8 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.1 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3 pts ★ | ±4.7 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 | D+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 80% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 69 polls | 130 polls |
| 2026 polls | 2 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | D+3.1 |
| Race | ABC/Washington Post (latest) | Marist (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+4.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Marist College vs. YouGov · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Marist College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. Emerson College · Marist College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Marist College vs. New York Times/Siena College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. New York Times/Siena College
ABC/Washington Post has the smaller average error (3.1 pts vs. 4.8 pts). Overall, aBC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (ABC/Washington Post: A, Trust Score 80; Marist: B+, Trust Score 61).
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.