ABC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | ABC/Washington Post | Cygnal |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 80/100 ★ | 76/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.1 pts ★ | 3.8 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.1 better | 1.5 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3 pts ★ | ±3.3 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 ★ | D+2.4 |
| Winners called | 67% | 92% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 69 polls | 39 polls |
| 2026 polls | 2 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+0.3 |
| Race | ABC/Washington Post (latest) | Cygnal (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 53, James 41 (D+5 vs. avg) | Benson 45, James 38 (D+0.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Cygnal vs. YouGov · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. Emerson College · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. New York Times/Siena College
ABC/Washington Post has the smaller average error (3.1 pts vs. 3.8 pts). Overall, aBC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (ABC/Washington Post: A, Trust Score 80; Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76).
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.