NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Morning Consult | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 41/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.5 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±2.7 pts ★ | ±3.9 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+4 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 74 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+1 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Morning Consult vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Morning Consult · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Morning Consult vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.5 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Morning Consult: B-, Trust Score 41; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.