Ipsos comes out ahead on 3 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Ipsos | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 60/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.7 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 73% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 175 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 14 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+1.3 |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Ipsos vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 4.7 pts). Overall, ipsos comes out ahead on 3 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Ipsos: B+, Trust Score 60; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.