ABC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | ABC/Washington Post | InsiderAdvantage |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 80/100 ★ | 28/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.1 pts ★ | 4.6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.1 better ★ | 0.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3 pts ★ | ±4.6 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.5 | D+0.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% ★ | 62% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 69 polls | 94 polls |
| 2026 polls | 2 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | — | R+0.8 |
| Race | ABC/Washington Post (latest) | InsiderAdvantage (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (D+0.7 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. Emerson College · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. New York Times/Siena College · ABC News/The Washington Post vs. New York Times/Siena College
ABC/Washington Post has the smaller average error (3.1 pts vs. 4.6 pts). Overall, aBC/Washington Post comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (ABC/Washington Post: A, Trust Score 80; InsiderAdvantage: C, Trust Score 28).
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.