Cygnal comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | Ipsos |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 60/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 4.7 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±4 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | D+2.4 |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 73% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 175 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Ipsos vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. New York Times/Siena College · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.7 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 5 of 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; Ipsos: B+, Trust Score 60).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.