| Pollster | Date | Vance | Newsom | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson A+ | Aug 17, 2026 | 44 | 49 | Newsom +5 |
| Zogby D | Jul 4, 2026 | 45 | 38 | Vance +7 |
| The Tarrance Group | Jun 24, 2026 | 47 | 43 | Vance +4 |
| Overton Insights | May 20, 2026 | 39 | 44 | Newsom +5 |
| UMass Lowell | Mar 30, 2026 | 36 | 33 | Vance +3 |
| Zogby D | Jan 7, 2026 | 44.6 | 41 | Vance +3.6 |
| The Argument/Verasight | Nov 17, 2025 | 46.4 | 53.6 | Newsom +7.2 |
| Morning Consult B- | Nov 16, 2025 | 42 | 41 | Vance +1 |
| Overton Insights | Oct 29, 2025 | 43 | 46 | Newsom +3 |
| YouGov B- | Oct 20, 2025 | 32 | 36 | Newsom +4 |
| Echelon Insights | Oct 20, 2025 | 46 | 47 | Newsom +1 |
| Emerson A+ | Oct 14, 2025 | 45.5 | 44.9 | Vance +0.6 |
| YouGov/Yahoo B- | Sep 2, 2025 | 41 | 49 | Newsom +8 |
| Leger360 | Aug 31, 2025 | 46 | 47 | Newsom +1 |
| Emerson A+ | Aug 26, 2025 | 44.4 | 43.5 | Vance +0.9 |
| On Point/SoCal Strategies | Aug 18, 2025 | 37 | 39 | Newsom +2 |
| Emerson A+ | Jul 22, 2025 | 45.3 | 42.1 | Vance +3.2 |
| On Point/SoCal Strategies | Dec 23, 2024 | 37 | 34 | Vance +3 |
More: every 2028 matchup · Nationwide: JD Vance · Gavin Newsom
Vance leads by 0.8 points in the average of the 5 most recent polls of this 2028 matchup (Vance 42.2%, Newsom 41.4%). The latest, from Emerson (Aug 17, 2026), has Vance 44% and Newsom 49%.
18 national polls in Crosstab's list, from Dec 23, 2024 to Aug 17, 2026.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Polls compiled from Wikipedia's sourced poll tables (CC BY-SA 4.0); results belong to the pollsters. Grades: Crosstab Trust Index.