Alaska governor average tightens nearly 7 points in a week
Plus three Senate races where betting markets and Crosstab's model disagree on Democratic odds.
Kreiss-Tomkins's lead over Wilson in the Alaska governor's race has narrowed to 10.1 points, down from 16.8 a week ago, as the Crosstab average now stands at 50.7% to 40.6%.
The New York Times/Siena University survey, graded A+ with a Trust Score of 84 in the Crosstab Trust Index, found Kreiss-Tomkins up just 52% to 48% among 431 likely voters on Oct 1. That was 12.8 points tighter than other polls at the time, though this pollster's 2026 polls have leaned R+1 on average. Cygnal, in a poll sponsored by a Republican group, graded A with a Trust Score of 76, put Kreiss-Tomkins ahead 44% to 24% among 502 likely voters on Sep 27.
The third poll cuts the other way. Fabrizio/Anzalone, not yet graded by Crosstab, had Kreiss-Tomkins up 55% to 45% among 800 likely voters on Sep 17, from a pollster whose 2026 polls lean D+2 on average.
Three polls is a thin foundation for a race this size, and Crosstab still rates it Leans Democratic. Polymarket traders give Democrats a 74% chance on about $1.4 million traded. That's more bullish than the polling shift alone would suggest.
Iowa Senate: betting markets trail model's Democratic edge
Turek's lead over Hinson in the Iowa Senate race has held at 1.7 points for a week, up slightly from 0.7 a month ago, with the Crosstab average at 47% to 45.2%.
The Siena Research Institute's new poll, graded A- with a Trust Score of 67, found Hinson ahead 48% to 47% among 606 likely voters on Oct 3. That's a 2.6-point swing toward Hinson versus other polls at the time, even though this pollster's 2026 polls lean D+2.7 on average.
Crosstab moved the race from Leans Dem to Toss Up on Oct 4, and its forecast now gives Turek a 60% chance. Polymarket traders are far less confident, pricing Democrats at 43% on about $730,000 traded.
Kansas Senate: traders far more bearish than Crosstab model
Hamilton's edge over Marshall in Kansas has slipped to 0.4 points, from 0.6 a week ago, after trailing by 0.2 a month ago. The Crosstab average now reads 45.9% to 45.5%.
Crosstab's forecast gives Hamilton a 57% chance of winning, but Polymarket traders put Democrats at just 33% on about $770,000 traded, a 24-point gap.
The stakes are high either way. Crosstab's 20,000-simulation forecast finds Democrats at 73% to win the Senate if they hold this seat, versus 62% for Republicans if they take it.
Florida Senate: markets more bearish on Democrats than model
Moody's lead over Nixon in the Florida Senate race has held near 4.7 points for a week, down from 8 points a month ago, with the Crosstab average at 48.5% to 43.8%.
Crosstab's forecast gives Nixon a 25% chance of winning, while Polymarket traders price Democrats at just 9% on about $168,000 traded.
The gap comes as JD Vance told a Central Florida audience that Nixon "doesn't belong in America," sharpening the tone of a race where the polling margin has moved little.
In Kansas, Iowa and Florida, Crosstab's model gives Democrats a better shot than Polymarket traders do, 57% versus 33% in Kansas, 60% versus 43% in Iowa, 25% versus 9% in Florida. The gap holds across all three races, worth watching as the campaigns move into October.
Topics: Governors · Senate · Pollsters
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Every number in Crosstab Daily is checked against Crosstab's polling data before it's published. Crosstab is nonpartisan and doesn't predict winners.