Toss-up races are moving in different directions this week, Hinojosa gaining in Texas, Masterson pulling ahead in Kansas, Jackson's Maine lea
An A+-rated pollster's survey puts Hinojosa ahead of Abbott 49%-46%, a result markedly more favorable to Hinojosa than other polls were showing at the time, even though the Crosstab average still has Abbott up 2.5 points in a Toss-up race.
Texas Governor: the Crosstab average is Hinojosa (D) 46.5%, Abbott (R) 49%: Abbott +2.5.
NY Times/Siena (Crosstab grade A+, Trust Score 84), Oct 1: Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%, 615 likely voters; Hinojosa +6.8 compared with other polls at the time; this pollster's 2026 polls lean R+1 on average.
Though read as a Republican-leaning result compared with other polls at the time, Trafalgar's poll itself has El-Sayed ahead 47%-45%, consistent with the Crosstab average of El-Sayed +3.7.
Michigan Senate: the Crosstab average is El-Sayed (D) 48.2%, Rogers (R) 44.5%: El-Sayed +3.7.
A week ago the average was El-Sayed +4.1; 30 days ago, El-Sayed +3.3.
NY Times/Siena's survey shows Masterson ahead 49%-44%, part of a broader shift in the Crosstab average from Holscher +1 a month ago to Masterson +4.6 today.
Kansas Governor: the Crosstab average is Holscher (D) 45.3%, Masterson (R) 49.9%: Masterson +4.6.
A week ago the average was Masterson +3.5; 30 days ago, Holscher +1.
The Crosstab average has fallen to Jackson +0.9 from +5.6 a month ago, and CBS News/YouGov found the race tied, raising questions about the 9/28 Leans Dem rating.
Maine Senate: the Crosstab average is Jackson (D) 48.2%, Collins (R) 47.3%: Jackson +0.9.
A week ago the average was Jackson +1.7; 30 days ago, Jackson +5.6.
Toss-up races are moving in different directions this week, Hinojosa gaining in Texas, Masterson pulling ahead in Kansas, Jackson's Maine lead shrinking, while the national Senate forecast keeps ticking toward Democrats, now at 69%.
Texas Governor: the Crosstab average is Hinojosa (D) 46.5%, Abbott (R) 49%: Abbott +2.5.
Kansas Governor: the Crosstab average is Holscher (D) 45.3%, Masterson (R) 49.9%: Masterson +4.6.
The numbers behind American politics, every morning at 6:30 ET. Free, checked against the data, never a prediction.
Every number in Crosstab Daily is checked against Crosstab's polling data before it's published. Crosstab is nonpartisan and doesn't predict winners.