The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MN-02 (Safe Democratic) · MN-03 (Safe Democratic) · MN-04 (Safe Democratic) · MN-05 (Safe Democratic) · MN-06 (Likely Republican) · MN-07 (Safe Republican) · MN-08 (Leans Republican)
Crosstab rates Minnesota's 1st District Toss-up: Democrats have a 40% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 1.8 points.
Brad Finstad (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.