The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
KS-01 (Safe Republican) · KS-02 (Likely Republican) · KS-03 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Kansas's 4th District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 4% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 12.8 points.
Ron Estes (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.