The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
KS-02 (Likely Republican) · KS-03 (Safe Democratic) · KS-04 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Kansas's 1st District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 0% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 20.8 points.
Tracey Mann (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.