The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
WI-02 (Safe Democratic) · WI-03 (Leans Democratic) · WI-04 (Safe Democratic) · WI-05 (Safe Republican) · WI-06 (Likely Republican) · WI-07 (Safe Republican) · WI-08 (Likely Republican)
Crosstab rates Wisconsin's 1st District Leans Democratic: Democrats have a 78% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 5.2 points.
Bryan Steil (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.