The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
NM-01 (Safe Democratic) · NM-02 (Likely Democratic)
Crosstab rates New Mexico's 3rd District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 99% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 15.2 points.
Teresa Leger Fernandez (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.