The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
NM-02 (Likely Democratic) · NM-03 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates New Mexico's 1st District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 100% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 23.2 points.
Melanie Stansbury (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.