The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MT-02 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Montana's 1st District Leans Republican: Democrats have a 39% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 1.8 points.
Ryan Zinke (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.