The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MO-01 (Safe Democratic) · MO-02 (Leans Democratic) · MO-03 (Safe Republican) · MO-04 (Safe Republican) · MO-06 (Safe Republican) · MO-07 (Safe Republican) · MO-08 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Missouri's 5th District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 100% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 33.2 points.
Emanuel Cleaver (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.