The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
AZ-01 (Likely Democratic) · AZ-02 (Leans Republican) · AZ-03 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-04 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-05 (Likely Republican) · AZ-06 (Likely Democratic) · AZ-07 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-08 (Leans Republican)
Crosstab rates Arizona's 9th District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 0% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 20.8 points.
Paul Gosar (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.