The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
AZ-02 (Leans Republican) · AZ-03 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-04 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-05 (Likely Republican) · AZ-06 (Likely Democratic) · AZ-07 (Safe Democratic) · AZ-08 (Leans Republican) · AZ-09 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Arizona's 1st District Likely Democratic: Democrats have a 85% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 7.2 points.
David Schweikert (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.