The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
VA-01 (Leans Democratic) · VA-02 (Likely Democratic) · VA-03 (Safe Democratic) · VA-04 (Safe Democratic) · VA-06 (Safe Republican) · VA-07 (Safe Democratic) · VA-08 (Safe Democratic) · VA-09 (Safe Republican) · VA-10 (Safe Democratic) · VA-11 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Virginia's 5th District Leans Republican: Democrats have a 40% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 1.8 points.
John McGuire (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.