The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
VA-02 (Likely Democratic) · VA-03 (Safe Democratic) · VA-04 (Safe Democratic) · VA-05 (Leans Republican) · VA-06 (Safe Republican) · VA-07 (Safe Democratic) · VA-08 (Safe Democratic) · VA-09 (Safe Republican) · VA-10 (Safe Democratic) · VA-11 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Virginia's 1st District Leans Democratic: Democrats have a 77% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 5.2 points.
Rob Wittman (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.