The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
OK-02 (Safe Republican) · OK-03 (Safe Republican) · OK-04 (Safe Republican) · OK-05 (Likely Republican)
Crosstab rates Oklahoma's 1st District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 4% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 11.8 points.
Kevin Hern (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.